The Global Consciousness Project

[Laird]

But under a more general model I would still expect the gradient of the curve to show a minimum midway through the event.

I'm not understanding why this is, but then, I don't know how or why you chose your model either - not that I'd necessarily understand if you explained, but it might be worth "putting out there" for those who are capable: you have already drawn Roger Nelson to this thread.

But what wouldn't change, unless I'm mistaken, is the theoretical power-law dependence of the effect size Z upon the event duration N.

Again, without a lot of work, effort, and guidance, I'm unlikely to understand your explanation of that either, but it might be worth explaining for others.