The revealing statistics of UFOs over the last 80 years

I just ran across an interesting quite unbiased research paper dating from June 2021, on the statistics of the UFO phenomenon over the last 80 years, overall patterns that emerge from the available data, since the advent of the WWII "foo fighters". These statistics seem to indicate a great likelihood that the phenomenon is real, an intelligence, and is actively interested in human beings and also in nuclear weapons installations. This is rather than the different statistics that would be expected if the phenomenon was due to human imagination, misperception, hallucination, etc. and therefore directly proportional to population.

From the 8 page (with 5 graphs) research paper, A Preliminary Analysis of Historical UFO Report Data, by Mark Carlotto  (June 2021), at https://www.academia.edu/66381885/A_Prel...-read-more :

Abstract
Analysis of over 90,000 reports from the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) database offers preliminary answers to several key questions regarding unidentified flying objects/aerial phenomena (UFO/UAP). Report statistics over the past eighty years (since 1940) indicate the UFO phenomenon is growing at an exponential rate in the United States. Breaking down the statistics by state reveals a strong correlation between the number of sightings in a state and its population density, suggesting UFOs appear more frequently in populated areas. Statistics also show that the frequency of different shape observables has changed over time (e.g., from disks to triangles), indicating the phenomenon has and may continue to evolve.
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Over the 80 year period from 1940 to 2020, UFO sightings have increased exponentially, doubling in number, on average, every 6.3 years. In this same period, the US population increased at a much lower rate from 132 million to 330 million people. The lack of correlation between the growth in the number of UFO reports and US population suggests the rate at which UFOs are being reported does not depend on the number of people unless one is willing to concede that the average observer is now a thousand times more likely to see a UFO than in 1940.
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If we compare maps of population density (persons per sq. km) with the density of sightings (number of sightings per sq. km), the two maps appear to be highly correlated. This suggests that, on average, UFOs actively favor areas with more people, rather than there being more sightings simply because there are more people available to witness a UFO. That said, some places have had fewer sightings than expected, while others have had more. For example, Arizona has more than three times more reports per capita than, say, Ohio. One explanation is that besides human populations, UFOs may be interested in other places such as nuclear weapons facilities.
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That UFOs started to be seen in greater and greater numbers at the birth of the Atomic Age and more sightings per capita occur in places that host nuclear weapons and related sites suggest a possible correlation. Why it is growing at an exponential rate could be the result of how interested (alien) observers might react to nuclear and other potential threats to earth and humanity.
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(As discussed),...it is difficult to explain the increase in UFO sightings in terms of just the human response. Could the growth of the phenomenon be the result of outside observers becoming increasingly more interested in us? Perhaps their reaction to us is not unlike our own to a YouTube video that goes “viral” as it is watched by more and more people.

Mark Carlotto who compiled the information and wrote the article is the creator of Ancient Aliens, a multi-times debunked pile of utter nonsense.  Let's be careful how we tread and how we interpret the information here!

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm9607406/

I just ran across an interesting quite unbiased research paper dating from June 2021, on the statistics of the UFO phenomenon over the last 80 years, overall patterns that emerge from the available data, since the advent of the WWII "foo fighters". These statistics seem to indicate a great likelihood that the phenomenon is real, an intelligence, and is actively interested in human beings and also in nuclear weapons installations. This is rather than the different statistics that would be expected if the phenomenon was due to human imagination, misperception, hallucination, etc. and therefore directly proportional to population.

From the 8 page (with 5 graphs) research paper, A Preliminary Analysis of Historical UFO Report Data, by Mark Carlotto  (June 2021), at https://www.academia.edu/66381885/A_Prel...-read-more :

This bit was interesting:

It has been suggested that the UFO phenomenon has evolved over time, perhaps as a result of our response to it. The NUFORC database classifies UFO reports into twenty shapes. Figure 5 plots the relative frequency of four of the UFO shapes: disks, triangles, cigars, and changing shapes observed between 1940 and 2020. Prior to 1985, the classic disk shape of a flying saucer was sighted more frequently than the triangular shape, which today is seen more frequently.

The paper mentions a shift from disks to triangles being seen. Are the aliens coming in different craft? Are they different aliens?

Mark Carlotto who compiled the information and wrote the article is the creator of Ancient Aliens, a multi-times debunked pile of utter nonsense.  Let's be careful how we tread and how we interpret the information here!

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm9607406/

Mark Carlotto has had a long career investigating and espousing what he finds to be extensive archaeological evidence for the existence of very ancient prehistoric human civilizations that may have developed advanced technology tens of thousands of years ago long before recorded history, drastically conflicting with the picture accepted in the mainstream archaeology and anthropology community. I think there is at least some evidence of this, and that it bears investigation.

This investigation appears to be in the same spirit in its conflict with establishment Science, as the pursuit of the paranormal, afterlife, Intelligent Design and UFO topics in this Psiencequest forum.

I further think that unfortunately Carlotto's notion is probably unlikely for two main reasons involved with lack of evidence: (1) any prehistoric development of high technology would have left indelible traces in the Earth, in the form of ancient (from prehistory) mineshafts and drilling sites, and the at least partial exhaustion of oil, gas, coal and metal ore deposits; none have ever been found, and (2) the notion that certain ancient monuments like the Pyramids may have utilized technology much older than conventional archaeological dating admits conflicts with extensive archaeological datings of material, conventional Egyptological archaeological understanding of how the pyramid-building technology was gradually, incrementally developed by the ancient Egyptians in early historical time, and also the existence of king lists covering the period.

But Carlotto's hypothesis is still a legitimate paradigm-busting field challenging the orthodox closed-minded science community.

It should also be noted that Carlotto appears to reject the notion that these posited very early prehistoric civilizations had some sort of alien influence or origin (which looked at unbiasedly appears not to be impossible), and his UFO paper that I covered in my OP post has legitimate statistical reasoning leading to his conclusions regarding some hints into the probable nature of the currently and for the last 80 years experienced UFO phenomenon. 

I think that his espousal of the prehistoric civilization theory doesn't impede his ability to present a coherently reasoned-through scientific paper on the meaning of the statistics of the UFO phenomenon over the last 80 years. To my knowledge no one else has ever taken the trouble to really look into the statistics of the UFO phenomenon and the meaning of them as to the probably nature of the phenomenon. And in his UFO paper he makes no mention of his ancient civilization interests, and they appear to be unrelated. His position appears to be unbiased regarding the possibility of the physical reality of UFOs and their possible nature as ETIs or some other intelligence even stranger, with an interest in humanity, and he apparently thinks that they may not be extraterrestrial. These are all ideas considered before in attempted analyses of the enigmatic UFO phenomenon.

A summary of his not totally unreasonable views regarding previous prehistoric civilizations, from https://beforeatlantis.com/2018/10/03/an...ypothesis/ :

"The age and distribution of the ancient sites that I discovered suggested another (more likely) possibility (than Erich von Däniken's or Zecharia Sitchin’s theories): that the original structures at these sites might have been built by a previous, highly developed technological civilization that existed throughout the world tens of thousands of years ago or more. Instead of an exogenous (i.e., extraterrestrial) influence, perhaps an indigenous technological civilization evolved over the timeline of an earlier human migration out of Africa 200,000 to 300,000 years ago, much like we have during the last 70,000 years. If so, our ancestor’s past encounters with this older civilization could have been the source of ancient myths of powerful gods, lost continents, even Atlantis."

About Mark Carlotto: He is an aerospace engineer with over thirty years of experience in satellite imaging, remote sensing, signal and image processing, pattern recognition, and app development. Carlotto received a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from Carnegie-Mellon University in 1981 and has published over one hundred technical articles and written six books.

I'm aware of his qualifications, I am also aware of his madness.  Appealing to authority won't detract from the absurdities in his thinking about these matters.  He is responsible for Ancient Aliens, a bizarre out-there pile of speculative nonsense which has been thoroughly debunked many many times.

This bit was interesting:


The paper mentions a shift from disks to triangles being seen. Are the aliens coming in different craft? Are they different aliens?

This shift was real but is just part of the picture. The earliest shape was the "Foo Fighters" of late WWII, which had more the appearance of small spheres. Following Kenneth Arnold in 1947 the prevalent shapes were discs and cigar or torpedo-shaped vehicles, to be followed by triangles. The triangles seem recently to have been overcome by yet another shift in apparent physical configuration: to the growing prevalence again of relatively small spherical or puck-like objects often appearing to fighter pilots. I think the most logical explanation for these shifts is that they are different aliens or other even stranger intelligent entities.

I'm aware of his qualifications, I am also aware of his madness.  Appealing to authority won't detract from the absurdities in his thinking about these matters.  He is responsible for Ancient Aliens, a bizarre out-there pile of speculative nonsense which has been thoroughly debunked many many times.

Some details please. Especially on exactly how Carlotto's statistical analysis given in his paper is really invalid and pseudo-science.

I've just found out he also believes in the man on Mars.  What most scientists accept as pareidolia he believes is artificial. 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication..._in_origin

Doesn't prove him wrong about UFOs of course but personally I doubt his integrity and credibility.

I think the most logical explanation for these shifts is that they are different aliens or other even stranger intelligent entities.

But why are there shifts at all?

This IMO is an issue with ETH, that the so called physical craft undergo too many shifts across a relatively small time period.

This is in tandem with other shifts, like the claims of Nordic Aliens shifting toward claims of Greys.

We can grant the ETH hypothesis some as yet unknown means of FTL travel, but even then the data doesn't seem to fit.

I don't know how reliable this is, so it's just food for thought, but I read somewhere that people in contact with the aliens have been told the nuclear blasts influence other dimensions.

So if the aliens are interdimensional beings (which could include but not be limited to the afterlife/spiritual dimensions), they might have an interest in nuclear weapons for that reason.

Also humans are generally left to determine  our own fate but I think if we were on the verge of doing something really horrendous that would damage the ability of the planet to support life, I think there might be some kind of intervention.

For those who believe intelligent design is the best explanation for the origin of life, macroevolution, the fine tuning of the universe to support life, and the big bang - it would only be reasonable that the designers would protect their investment from blowing itself up.