AI megathread

I've already watched and responded to that, @Valmar.

Even that marked section of the talk?

[Laird]

I'm not interested in arguing with you about a topic on which you're badly ignorant and uninformed. If you want help in becoming better informed though, then let me know.

@Sci, since you dodged my question, I assume that, like @Valmar, you have little to no personal experience with LLMs. That figures.

I just said it's getting integrated into the work space? 

How is that dodging your question?

Admittedly I can't help but wonder what the time you spent with LLMs is supposed to do to convince me the technology is doing something "truly remarkable".

I've made the necessary points, and I won't belabour them. I'll simply add some observations:

It seems that just as @sbu's metaphysical beliefs lead him to reflexively dismiss the significance (and the very existence) of very real phenomena like UFOs and psi given that they challenge those beliefs, so your (and @Valmar's) metaphysical beliefs lead you (both) to reflexively dismiss the significance (and the very existence) of the very real intelligence of LLMs given that it challenges those beliefs.

I find this quite curious given that to a meaningful extent, @nbtruthman and I share your metaphysical beliefs, yet both of us, having explored LLMs a little, are quite willing to affirm their remarkable intelligence (while of course at the same time acknowledging that it has certain - sometimes very strange and face-palm - failure modes).

Another word on top of "curious" is "disappointing". I expect better from you.

Why do you think LLMs would challenge my metaphysical beliefs?

Especially since you don't think the "intelligence" of LLMs means they are conscious?

Michael Levin thinks LLMs could be intelligent and this just reinforces his Platonic metaphysics. Donald Hoffman, an Idealist, also has expressed similar thinking in this regard.

Perhaps my questioning the "truly remarkable" nature of LLMs is less about metaphysics and more that there are sufficient grounds to disbelieve the hype...

[Laird]

I just said it's getting integrated into the work space?

That doesn't necessarily entail any personal exposure of your own, let alone interactions that meaningfully test capacity. Anyhow, the denial here seems insurmountable, so I won't continue to beat my head against a brick wall.

AI as Normal Technology: An alternative to the vision of AI as a potential superintelligence

by Arvind Narayanan & Sayash Kapoor

...To view AI as normal is not to understate its impact—even transformative, general-purpose technologies such as electricity and the internet are “normal” in our conception. But it is in contrast to both utopian and dystopian visions of the future of AI which have a common tendency to treat it akin to a separate species, a highly autonomous, potentially superintelligent entity. 

The statement “AI is normal technology” is three things: a description of current AI, a prediction about the foreseeable future of AI, and a prescription about how we should treat it. We view AI as a tool that we can and should remain in control of, and we argue that this goal does not require drastic policy interventions or technical breakthroughs. We do not think that viewing AI as a humanlike intelligence is currently accurate or useful for understanding its societal impacts, nor is it likely to be in our vision of the future. This is different from the question of whether it is helpful for an individual user to conceptualize a specific AI system as a tool as opposed to a human-like entity such as an intern, a co-worker, or a tutor.

The normal technology frame is about the relationship between technology and society. It rejects technological determinism, especially the notion of AI itself as an agent in determining its future. It is guided by lessons from past technological revolutions, such as the slow and uncertain nature of technology adoption and diffusion. It also emphasizes continuity between the past and the future trajectory of AI in terms of societal impact and the role of institutions in shaping this trajectory...