A simple telepathy test: which word did I write?

I recently wrote (and circled) one of the following four words: "dog", "cat", "bird" and "horse".

I ask you to tell me which of these four words I wrote.

The word was selected by means of this random number generator: https://www.random.org/integers/ , all four words have equal probabilities.

I shall repeat it from time to time.

[Laird]

Show contentMy answer:

Horse

Show contentMy answer:

Bird.

[Laird]

I've edited my post and Valmar's so as to enclose our answers in a spoiler tag, so we don't bias other answerers.

Let's all use the spoiler tag for answers in this thread and others like it. You can insert it via the toolbar (using this button: ) or type it in directly something like this:

Code:

[spoiler="My answer"]
The animal
[/spoiler]

The hidden contents can then be shown by clicking the "Show content" text to the far right of the spoiler's text.

Show contentMy answer:

Bird

[Ninshub]

Show contentMy answer:

bird

all four words have equal probabilities.

No they don't because of psychology.  Three are four-legged mammals and the other is a bird.  I'll bet most people will guess bird.

No they don't because of psychology.  Three are four-legged mammals and the other is a bird.  I'll bet most people will guess bird.

All four words do indeed have equal probabilities of getting selected (this is what I meant).

I did not select the target according to some personal taste or liking, this is what the (high quality) random number generator is for.

As for the answers, I haven't done this test for long enough to know if "bird" is more likely (in general).


Thank you to Laird, Valmar, Silence and Ninshub for their answers.

I've edited my post and Valmar's so as to enclose our answers in a spoiler tag, so we don't bias other answerers.

Let's all use the spoiler tag for answers in this thread and others like it.

I don't know if this is really useful, Laird.

It's debatable, I think.

I remember one test (on another forum) where I saw posters really converge towards the correct answer, being helped by some hints provided by previous responders.

Sure, previous answers can influence new answers, but this bias isn't necessarily bad (it isn't clear in which direction it will go).

[Laird]

In that case, @Michel H, consider my advice to be voided; we can leave it to individual answerers to decide whether or not they enclose their answer in a spoiler tag. Yes?