Telepathy test: which number did I write?

There is perhaps one important piece of information I should give you at this point, Pollux: the number I wrote and surrounded was selected by using this random number generator: https://www.random.org/integers/. So, it was not "calculated" in a more or less devilish way, with first or second order reasonings ... .

So this is actually a test of retro-PK? As 3 is the most popular guess so far, I'll pick 3 too.

[Laird]

Three too - not because of any sort of premonition, just because it's something of a favourite number of mine.

My first thought was 4 so I'll stick with that.

I would like now to present the results of this test.

The answers that I find credible are:

4

Three

3 for me.

My first thought was 4 so I'll stick with that.

The correct answer to this test (given by Ninshub and Kamarling) was "4", so the hit rate for credible answers is equal to 50%, and is significantly higher than the approximately 25% expected from chance only.

In addition to the four credible answers mentioned above, three answers that I did not find credible  and trustworthy were also given (note that the interest of such answers should not be underestimated). These three non-credible answers are:

I think it's number 1. 
If one looks at it as a random choice, were convenience, and no deeper thought is put to it to it, the number 1 is the "easier" choice. It's the first number in a string, and is just "convenient" to choose. But of course, that's not how most minds work. We don't choose the "too obvious" target, but instead we try to put it somewhere more "unlikely". The number 4 is also a bit "convenient & easy" as it is in the end of the string, and number 2 isn't "right" either. It's too close to 1, and it is a "easier, even, and dividable" number so its a "to obvious" choice as well, which leaves us with number 3 - which is "perfect". It's an odd, a prime number, and it is not in the beginning or in the end of the string of numbers, it is placed in the "odd place" as the second to last of of the string of numbers. It is the most "anonymous" placing.

But; since this is they way most people think, most people then also does some sort of bait-and-switch when they are asked to select a number for guessing. So what they do is to pick the most "obvious" one, since they think that no one would guess on that one, because it is so "obvious". They could also select the number 4, but I think for the "convenience" they choose the number 1, to be done with it. 
So I think it's number 1.


Logical, isn't it??


PS: But of course, the one who selects the number might take take this train of thought one extra step, and try to outsmart the "double-smart",  and end up at number 3....again.

So this is actually a test of retro-PK? As 3 is the most popular guess so far, I'll pick 3 too.

Three too - not because of any sort of premonition, just because it's something of a favourite number of mine.

Neither Pollux (1), nor Chris (3), nor Laird (3) gave the correct answer 4, so the hit rate among non-credible answers is equal to 0%. I often observe in these tests that non-credible answers are less accurate than credible ones, I view this as an important component of the "ESP effect" (ESP = extra-sensory perception).

Finally, I want to say that I found the (correct) answers by Ninshub and Kamarling more credible than those of Psst and tim, which were incorrect, but I don't want to go too much into details.

I would like now to present the results of this test.

The answers that I find credible are:

The correct answer to this test (given by Ninshub and Kamarling) was "4", so the hit rate for credible answers is equal to 50%, and is significantly higher than the approximately 25% expected from chance only.

In addition to the four credible answers mentioned above, three answers that I did not find credible  and trustworthy were also given (note that the interest of such answers should not be underestimated). These three non-credible answers are:
Neither Pollux (1), nor Chris (3), nor Laird (3) gave the correct answer 4, so the hit rate among credible answers is equal to 0%. I often observe in these tests that non-credible answers are less accurate than credible ones, I view this as an important component of the "ESP effect" (ESP = extra-sensory perception).

Finally, I want to say that I found the (correct) answers by Ninshub and Kamarling more credible than those of Psst and tim, which were incorrect, but I don't want to go too much into details.

I think you mean the hit rate among incredible answers is equal to 0%. I'm happy to agree that my answer was flippant. 

Really, though, you should obviously get this incredible/credible classification done by someone blind to the right answer. I can't help suspecting sometimes that you're just trying to make parapsychology look ridiculous.

Really, though, you should obviously get this incredible/credible classification done by someone blind to the right answer. I can't help suspecting sometimes that you're just trying to make parapsychology look ridiculous.

I don't know this guy but litle was accomplished here. Telepathy has nothing to do with mind reading thoughts anyway. It has to do with empathetic relationships, resonant vibration (complimentary energetic connections ) and it is difficult (impossible?) to be empathetic with an unknown.

This is why I 'failed' and I'm sticking to it.

I think you mean the hit rate among incredible answers is equal to 0%. I'm happy to agree that my answer was flippant. 
...

Yes, that's right. Thank you for pointing out this error, that I have now corrected.

... Really, though, you should obviously get this incredible/credible classification done by someone blind to the right answer. I can't help suspecting sometimes that you're just trying to make parapsychology look ridiculous.

No, this is certainly not my goal. I am confident that I can make this classification in a fairly objective way, though I remain open to possible objections (it is easy to verify my work, and I think it is wise to reject too much pedantism or too much angelism).

Psychologists have been busy studying parapsychology since J.B. Rhine, and what have they achieved? Not much, I am afraid.

I don't know this guy but litle was accomplished here.

There were quite a lot of these "tests" on Skeptiko. I could never work out what the point was, but it mostly seemed like "taking the Mick" (which strangely I never realised was Cockney rhyming slang).

I am confident that I can make this classification in a fairly objective way ...

Yes, of course you can. Just get someone who doesn't know the right answer to do it.

Finally, I want to say that I found the (correct) answers by Ninshub and Kamarling more credible than those of Psst and tim, which were incorrect, but I don't want to go too much into details.

The fact is that Ninshub's answer, in toto, was "4" and Pssst's was "Three". Saying that you find one of those "more credible" than the other, but that you don't want to go into details, seems like a pretty clear indication that you're just winding us up.