How Certain Are You That PSI Effects Are Real?

On balance, 50/50. It's higher for some things (ex. mild telepathy of the type Sheldrake's studied) and lower for others (ex. macro-PK.)

OK, I'll bite... what's your answer to that question, and why?

How certain am I that psi effects are anomalous? I'm hopeful that psi effects are anomalous, but I recognize that so far there hasn't been any evidence for a specific effect which we would identify as anomalous. That is, the evidence so far has established contributions from effects which we wouldn't consider anomalous, or has potentially left room for unknown effects whose nature hasn't been established. From an objective perspective, when something is unknown, our folk science guesses have been mostly wrong. So from an evidentiary point of view, "1%" would be a prudent answer. But I don't like that answer, so I've turned it around and asked "how certain am I that psi effects are not anomalous?" I'm not 99% certain. Maybe somewhere in the 50-75% range, which puts me at 25-50% in the poll.

(P.S. Was my solution to the pirate problem valid or did I mess up somehow? Been curious to get your response...)

I'm sorry. I was having a lot of fun with the puzzles (I had a solution to your 12 ball problem, but was working on an unconditional solution, which I agree is more elegant), but realized I better get back to my work, which was on a deadline.

Your solution to the pirate problem was valid, and it's more or less the solution I came up with. Which was what I hoped for, because the reason I asked it was because there is something about the problem which bugs me, and I wanted to ask a follow-up question to get some other opinions. It's actually related to the Unexpected Hanging question which came up later. Anyways, I'll pick that up in the puzzle thread.

Linda

Fileds are generally defined as a set of elements with related characteristics that are bound into a system by a common influence. In classical physics, a field is also defined by the extent of influence. That is, the influence of an attractor (kernel, source, center) diminishes over distance from the source of the influence.

An important characteristic of the psi field is that it is nonlocal, meaning an effect in New York can be sensed in Chicago. That is reasonably well established. A second characteristic that I think needs more study is that it is nontemperal, meaning that the personality in Chicago senses the event in New York as it occurs. It sometimes appears that nontemporal includes precognitive sensing, but that is confused with presentiment which may be the mind sensing the psi signature of an event before presenting information about the event to conscious awareness. It seems more likely that precognition is the sensing of the potential for one or more versions of the future to manifest.

Influence in a psi field (more generally, an etheric field) is a thought influence and not a physical force. 

Thanks for the thorough answer.  I find your assertions of what events happen - to be quite right.  On the other hand, I am driving toward the acceptance of much of this as normative to the known science of our day.

How would you contrast and compare your thinking to the assertions in this paper (which I am sure is still controversial) where the field is informational.  I am not so sure there is much difference in terms of the underlying model.

 Integrated Information Theory (IIT) has become nowadays the most sensible general theory of consciousness. In addition to very important statements, it opens the door for an abstract (mathematical) formulation of the theory. Given a mechanism in a particular state, IIT identifies a conscious experience with a conceptual structure, an informational object which exists, is composed of identified parts, is informative, integrated and maximally irreducible. This paper introduces a space-time continuous version of the concept of integrated information. To this aim, a graph and a dynamical systems treatment is used to define, for a given mechanism in a state for which a dynamics is settled, an Informational Structure, which is associated to the global attractor at each time of the system. By definition, the informational structure determines all the past and future behavior of the system, possesses an informational nature and, moreover, enriches all the points of the phase space with cause-effect power by means of its associated Informational Field. A detailed description of its inner structure by invariants and connections between them allows to associate a transition probability matrix to each informational structure and to develop a measure for the level of integrated information of the system.

bolding is my addition
https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/a...bi.1006154

Thanks for the thorough answer.  I find your assertions of what events happen - to be quite right.  On the other hand, I am driving toward the acceptance of much of this as normative to the known science of our day.

How would you contrast and compare your thinking to the assertions in this paper https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/a...bi.1006154

I had reviewed Integrated Information Theory some time ago. It is interesting but I am not comfortable with equating states of a dynamic system with purpose. Bohm's The Implicate Order seems to be more to the point. http://www.bizint.com/stoa_del_sol/plenum/plenum_3.html

As a technical writer, I worry about statements like "The attractor exists and its nature is essentially informational, as it possesses the power to produce a curvature of the phase space enriching every point with the information on its possible past and future dynamics." overcomplicate the subject and put us in the mystical rabbit hole. You have to define those terms ... even justify them to communicate.

We have a quandary in the study of transcommunication. popular wisdom holds that (if possible at all) a person might psychically cause a feather to move easier than a rock. In EVP, voice is apparently formed with the influence of intended order (psychic) on available audio-frequency noise. But some noise works better than others. 

Again, popular wisdom holds that white noise is best, but it is actually not so good. It appears that any sufficiently voice-frequence weighted noise is suitable if it is punctuated by occasional noise spikes. The EVP seems to begin to form in the base noise signal when the noise is perturbed by energy spike.

My speculation is that the influence of intended order is not on physical processes but on the concept which organizes those processes. If so, it would appear the key factor is uncertainty. White noise is very certain. Punctuated while noise is much less certain.

Revisiting Integrated Information Theory, I can see the model might help explain the difference between the certainty of a supposedly ultra-random process and the uncertainty of a moderately chaotic one. psychically, the emergent order of a dynamic system is the concept.

Thanks for pointing out the article. I am not smart enough to tell what the authors are trying to say and will waite for a good technical writer to translate.

I had reviewed Integrated Information Theory some time ago. It is interesting but I am not comfortable with equating states of a dynamic system with purpose. Bohm's The Implicate Order seems to be more to the point. http://www.bizint.com/stoa_del_sol/plenum/plenum_3.html

Informational fields and "information objects", referenced in the article by the Spanish bioinformatic scientists and mathematicians, should be discussed in a new thread.

I have read about Bohm's Implicate Order extensively.  I find the concept wonderful philosophy and am inspired by his presentation and exposition.   From the link posted above.

 Referring to quantum theory, Bohm's basic assumption is that "elementary particles are actually systems of extremely complicated internal structure, acting essentially as amplifiers of *information* contained in a quantum wave." As a consequence, he has evolved a new and controversial theory of the universe--a new model of reality that Bohm calls the "Implicate Order."

I most strongly agree with this quote about Bohm's development of the idea.

The theory of the Implicate Order contains an ultraholistic cosmic view; it connects everything with everything else. In principle, any individual element could reveal "detailed information about every other element in the universe." The central underlying theme of Bohm's theory is the "unbroken wholeness of the totality of existence as an undivided flowing movement without borders."

During the early 1980s Bohm developed his theory of the Implicate Order in order to explain the bizarre behavior of subatomic particles--behavior that quantum physicists have not been able to explain.....

Borrowing ideas from holographic photography, the *hologram* is Bohm's favorite metaphor for conveying the structure of the Implicate Order. Holography relies upon wave interference. If two wavelengths of light are of differing frequencies, they will interfere with each other and create a pattern. "Because a hologram is recording detail down to the wavelength of light itself, it is also a dense *information* storage." Bohm notes that the hologram clearly reveals how a "total content--in principle extending over the whole of space and time--is enfolded in the movement of waves (electromagnetic and other kinds) in any given region." The hologram illustrates how "information about the entire holographed scene is enfolded into every part of the film." It resembles the Implicate Order in the sense that every point on the film is "completely determined by the overall configuration of the interference patterns." Even a tiny chunk of the holographic film will reveal the unfolded form of an entire three-dimensional object.
Proceeding from his holographic analogy, Bohm proposes a new order--the Implicate Order where "everything is enfolded into everything."

Again - I most strongly agree with Bohm and with the information science associated with holographic expressions of information.

Some here may have noted, for more than 20 years, that I have been rambling on about "sea changes" discovered by information science, including on this forum and previously on Skeptico and Beliefnet.  ESP and Psi are about activity that involves communication and gaining veridical information without a physical signal.  To sort information encoded in signals, from that which is not, requires testable science.  Psi discoveries need defined methods and pathways that can exclude encoded messages/laws hidden deep (DNA, quantum equations, body language) from those such as remote viewing and precognition.

My 99% vote is based on already established ideas that do just this.

I would have to remove my 1%, and place it to 0%. I don't trust NDEs anymore, i have embraced skepticism.

I would have to remove my 1%, and place it to 0%. I don't trust NDEs anymore, i have embraced skepticism.

Any particular reason?

By the way, that isn't scepticism, it is some sort of belief, such as in physicalism. A sceptic represents a questioning. You have found certainty.

I too would be interested in how it's possible to go from (apparently) enthusiastic belief in NDEs to believing they're absolutely impossible - an assertion no one else here has been prepared to make.

^ What they said.