A probabilistic argument against deniers of the paranormal

[Laird]

Chris and lhl: thank you for your criticism - I accept that we would also need to prove that all the cases were independent... oh well, it had seemed like a good argument for a while there, I'm glad I ran it by you guys before trying to use it "in the field".

lhl, re the skeptic assigning a probability of zero: yes, that was a point I tried to make - that to avoid the cogency of this argument (before you guys had shown me that it is not, after all, so cogent), a "skeptic" would pretty much have to set the odds to zero.

Thanks all for responding!