Science Is Getting Less Bang for Its Buck
by Patrick Collison & Michael Nielsen
by Patrick Collison & Michael Nielsen
Quote:The picture this survey paints is bleak: Over the past century, we’ve vastly increased the time and money invested in science, but in scientists’ own judgement, we’re producing the most important breakthroughs at a near-constant rate. On a per-dollar or per-person basis, this suggests that science is becoming far less efficient.
Now, a critic might respond that the quality of Nobel Prize discoveries isn’t the same as the overall rate of progress in science. There are certainly many limitations of this measure. Parts of science are not covered by the Nobel Prizes, especially newer areas like computer science. The Nobel Committee occasionally misses important work. Perhaps some bias means scientists are more likely to venerate older prizes. And perhaps what matters more is the bulk of scientific work, the ordinary discoveries that make up most of science.
We recognize these limitations: The survey results are striking, but provide only a partial picture. However, we’ll soon see supporting evidence suggesting that it’s getting much harder to make important discoveries across the board. It’s requiring larger teams and far more extensive scientific training, and the overall economic impact is getting smaller. Taken together, these results suggest strong diminishing returns to our scientific efforts.
'Historically, we may regard materialism as a system of dogma set up to combat orthodox dogma...Accordingly we find that, as ancient orthodoxies disintegrate, materialism more and more gives way to scepticism.'
- Bertrand Russell
- Bertrand Russell
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