Psience Quest

Full Version: "Why I am no longer a skeptic"
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(2017-09-17, 03:14 AM)Dante Wrote: [ -> ]I understand the risk that comes with not getting to the cases as soon as the child initially says something, as do Tucker and as did Stevenson.

Do you consider it to be a significant risk?  

Quote:As far as the birthmarks go, I'm not particularly familiar with that part of the research - but nonetheless, the few cases I've read involving them have been a mix of what I found to be impressive and not so impressive, or more likely to be due to coincidence.

For the "children refer to themselves in the first person" thing, I just don't see how that would explain the research, and I know you noted that... but I think it's self explanatory enough that it wouldn't shock me if the researchers hadn't touched on it (and they may have, I don't recall but I haven't read nearly all the books the two of them have published - only a couple among other articles and interviews). It's one thing for a kid to say, "Look! That's me! I'm batman!" or something of that ilk, like a famous character, super hero, or video game character, and of course an entirely different thing when a child says something about being a random person from another location while simultaneously listing a number of facts about that person that they should or would have no access to, if they even had the capacity to remember the information if it was ever told to them. And I know you said that you're not making the claim that this is part of what may be going on in these cases, but I would think these reasons are obvious enough that maybe the researchers devoted time to other possible explanations or reasoning first. Again, I'm also not certain that they've never addressed it, though off the top of my head I can't recall that I've personally read such a thing.

If the children have been given the suggestion that they may have a past life, combined with at least some children's propensity towards identifying with such suggestions, I think it is something that deserves some serious attention.  

One thing I learned as a parent, to my surprise, was that my children, even when they could barely speak, took in much more than I thought.  For example, we'd have conversations in the car, thinking that the kids were oblivious when they would say something that indicated they had taken it all in.  

The problem with many of these cases is that we have no idea to what extent such influences could have impacted on the children - even if the parents didn't believe they had.  

Remember, with risks of bias we often have no way of knowing whether the bias impacted the results or not.  That is why we identify risk rather than try to identify actual bias (see the links fls provided for more on this).  

The objective in analyzing the cases is to determine how significant the risk of bias.  If it is significant, the case must be downgraded if we are trying to approach an objective assessment.  This is the case even if we haven't identified a specific bias in play.  As the Cochrane handbook suggests, trying to nail down exactly what effect a particular bias had is a fools game. Rather, we perform experiments with the bias included, and without and compare the results.  If it is not possible to perform the experiment without, well, we're just stuck with the risk I guess.

Quote:Interviewing children is, of course, going to be "risky" - but this is, as with most things, best addressed specifically with regards to an actual case rather tan broadly. This doesn't really hold a lot of water for me when there are thousands of cases and I don't think that the method of questioning by scientifically cautious and methodologically careful researchers who have been at this for awhile is especially likely to be suspect. They are aware of the difficulties of doing the research, and I believe do their best to conduct the research in as unbiased a way as possible.

Even if the researchers have done their job expertly (which is harder than one might think), it is virtually certain that the people interviewing the children before the experts arrive haven't had that training.  Like I suggested above, the risk is high even before the investigators get on the scene.

Quote:Of course there is risk of bias/error, as there is with everything that any human is directly involved in. I wouldn't say it is extra fraught with that risk - of course, because the subjects are also human beings, there is more subjectivity and risk, but I don't think "fraught with" is accurate, and I think that because the researchers appreciate the importance of their work and know how important their methodology is, they try their best to control for it, which it seems you've acknowledged.

I generally assume the researchers are trying their best.  If that were enough we wouldn't need to develop all these protocols such as double blinding.  We develop these protocols in order to overcome our weaknesses.

Quote:In spite of what you said, I think that an actual reading case by case makes it fairly difficult to assign some form of bias, coincidence, luck, or fraud to the majority of the cases, especially the stronger ones, which aren't lacking in number. Speaking generally has its place but won't move the needle much for me or others who are familiar with a large number of cases and the researchers' works and noted caveats.

There's more to say on this but briefly: despite the number, remember that what we are looking at is a selected sample of cases collected all over the world. By definition we are dealing with rare events. What we can infer is that there is a good chance that something rare happened in these cases, whether of mundane or non-mundane origins.  

In other words, when it comes to these cases we should expect the unexpected to be involved.  We must be careful not to lose the forest for the trees.
(2017-09-17, 12:36 AM)fls Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, you're probably right.

I have to admit that over the last several years, as I've looked at the research in greater detail, I've moved more towards skepticism. I thought it would be the other way around (like the OP). But there it is. I think part of it is because I've seen what happens in medicine, where weak evidence almost never holds up and even good evidence is regularly overturned by excellent evidence. I just can't bring myself to trust that weak evidence is going to be different in the case of psi.

I still think there's a chance something novel and odd or psi-like is going on. I'm interested in what kind of research designs will tease this out. But I don't know that there's much point to talking about what we think psi is until we know to what extent we're just talking about happenstance, cognitive biases, associative memory (intuition) and a sprinkling of misadventure.

Linda

We've strayed far, far from the original post, but to clarify - Bond's point wasn't that he had grown less skeptical, but that he'd rejected skepticism as an identity and an organized community, due to pervasive attitudes within that community.
(2017-09-18, 02:59 AM)Will Wrote: [ -> ]We've strayed far, far from the original post, but to clarify - Bond's point wasn't that he had grown less skeptical, but that he'd rejected skepticism as an identity and an organized community, due to pervasive attitudes within that community.

I thought the thread was about skepticsm myself, but I admit I only skimmed a few paragraphs of the article.  I'm not a part of the skeptical community. To me being a skeptic means applying skeptical methodology to the analysis of claims. 

 We can move the discussion of skepticsm itself to another thread if people feel this is a derail.
(2017-09-18, 03:16 AM)Arouet Wrote: [ -> ]I thought the thread was about skepticsm myself, but I admit I only skimmed a few paragraphs of the article.  I'm not a part of the skeptical community. To me being a skeptic means applying skeptical methodology to the analysis of claims. 

 We can move the discussion of skepticsm itself to another thread if people feel this is a derail.

Threads evolve over the course of time; nothing wrong with broadening the topics of discussion. As I posted the original essay, I just wanted to make its point clear. But I'd recommend reading Bond's piece in full.
(2017-09-18, 02:59 AM)Will Wrote: [ -> ]We've strayed far, far from the original post, but to clarify - Bond's point wasn't that he had grown less skeptical, but that he'd rejected skepticism as an identity and an organized community, due to pervasive attitudes within that community.
Fair point. I was probably responding more to the people in the thread who said they were no longer skeptical of psi because of the evidence. 

I did read the OP, but found it mostly uninteresting. I've never really been part of the organized Skeptic community, so I found myself saying, "yeah, if they did that, I'd be annoyed about it, too." I saw some stuff he mischaracterized, but can't really speak as to whether the rest is valid. 

My only experience was with the JREF forum. I liked it because of posters there like Ersby, who actually made a point of gathering primary information. And I liked the Million Dollar Challenge section where applicants would come to discuss their claims, so that advice could be given about how to make them suitable for the MDC while still being able to pass. But the ridicule of proponents from some members was off-putting, and I grew to have less and less respect for and trust in Randi. So I left quite a while ago. 

Linda
(2017-09-17, 07:17 PM)fls Wrote: [ -> ]My impression is different, I think (we may also be talking past each other). It seems to me that reincarnation, NDE and physical mediumship are about the separation of personality and memory from an earthly body. And we look at finding correspondences between statements made and our familiarity with a previous personality (or in the case of NDE, correspondences between our recollections of auditory/visual experiences and our physical environment). 

I'm not sure what you mean by "non-physical psi". Do you mean a personality in the absence of a physical body? If so, I can give you some examples - I'll wait for your confirmation or clarification. 

Linda

For this conversation I'm just removing physical psi such as PK (eg spoon bending, table tipping,,) and trying to stick with phenomenon that are more centered on the seat of consciousness, and personal information. ie: whether we are physical or non-physical beings at our core.

So for example- can you give an example that would fullful your demands for facilities such as: NDE, OBE, Mediumship, Reincarnation, or similar ?
(2017-09-17, 09:47 PM)Dante Wrote: [ -> ]Go reread your post. Your suggestions are not realistic in my opinion... if that's what is required in order to establish that in your mind, so be it. I am not certain that your suggested methods are remotely applicable to almost any of the cases. I am openly and directly disagreeing with you about those being realistic explanations for the body of research as a whole.
I agree with Dante. Which is why I am asked for a description of what you WOULD consider valid. I think it's important that those of use who are taking the time to try and discuss this from the "pro" side feel that we are having a conversation "in good faith", and not just being run around in circles, which I must admit, is often how it feels.

I personally don't mind taking the time to get down to details on this stuff, but I won't, if I feel like I am dealing with someone who is being disingenuous. I am not accusing anyone of such, at the moment.
(2017-09-18, 09:31 AM)Jjkmac Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with Dante. Which is why I am asked for a description of what you WOULD consider valid. I think it's important that those of use who are taking the time to try and discuss this from the "pro" side feel that we are having a conversation "in good faith", and not just being run around in circles, which I must admit, is often how it feels.

I personally don't mind taking the time to get down to details on this stuff, but I won't, if I feel like I am dealing with someone who is being disingenuous. I am not accusing anyone of such, at the moment.

I assume that part of your attempt to assess ingenuousness is to read the links provided and to follow up on them?
(2017-09-18, 09:31 AM)jkmac Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with Dante. Which is why I am asked for a description of what you WOULD consider valid. I think it's important that those of use who are taking the time to try and discuss this from the "pro" side feel that we are having a conversation "in good faith", and not just being run around in circles, which I must admit, is often how it feels.

I personally don't mind taking the time to get down to details on this stuff, but I won't, if I feel like I am dealing with someone who is being disingenuous. I am not accusing anyone of such, at the moment.
I agree. I feel much the same way. Which is why I suggested that we seem to be talking past each other - I didn't think you were deliberately trying to run in circles, and I'm not. You're other post was helpful, so I can give some more specific examples.

Linda
(2017-09-18, 11:00 AM)Arouet Wrote: [ -> ]I assume that part of your attempt to assess ingenuousness is to read the links provided and to follow up on them?
I follow up on things quite often, and I comment quite often. Look at the number of posts I have made, it's not like I hide in the weeds and snipe. I try and put myself out there. And I can't think of a time where I ran and hid rather than responded to a question, other than the time or two that I just decided to call it quits on a dialog that was obviously going in circles.

BTW- Which particular links are you referring to?

And then,, there are other times were I've decided not to "chase the stick" thrown by others. 

It's interesting though- I do take notice of the fact that not one person on the con side of the discussion (should I use the word Skeptic? really not sure what good word is w/o being snide) has responded with a simple example of how they might be convinced by solid evidence: yourself included. Not a link, not a rambling tome, just a simple expression of what might, in theory, be considered valid evidence of these sorts of events. edit- with the exception of Linda now.. Thanks Linda.

Should I attribute that to the fact that there really IS NO valid example that they could even imagine ? Or maybe they just don't care enough about that question to respond? (Which is a completely valid choice of course)

The point is very important to me though because it signifies whether discussion about evidence is even warranted, and worthwhile.
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