Deciphering the Decline Effect

Interesting to see that the Fetzer Franklin Fund, which commissioned an attempted replication of Dean Radin's double-slit studies, is also funding a multi-laboratory study of the decline effect, led by Jonathan Schooler and four other principal investigators:
https://www.fetzer-franklin-fund.org/pro...-effect-1/

The primary goals of the project seem to be directed as much towards investigating possible anomalous aspects of decline effects, as towards explaining them as the result of "questionable research practices":
1. To develop a gold standard for replication protocol, in which every effort is made to design experiments and implement replications in a manner that will maximize the likelihood of full replicability.
2. To examine whether the replications of newly devised experimental protocols are associated with declining effect sizes, even when all reasonable efforts are made to minimize such declines.
3. If declining effect sizes are still observed, to identify their possible locus by, for example, assessing whether other labs can replicate the findings as effectively as the originating lab.

The current status of the project will be presented next week at the Metascience 2019 Symposium at Stanford University (5-8 September).

[Laird]

Interesting. Having a bit of a browse around the files in the OSF registry, it seems worth noting that (as best I can tell) none of the studies to be replicated in an attempt to analyse the decline effect are parapsychological in nature - they seem to be straight psychology. (And I am not suggesting that this is news to you, Chris, just something worth mentioning).

Interesting. Having a bit of a browse around the files in the OSF registry, it seems worth noting that (as best I can tell) none of the studies to be replicated in an attempt to analyse the decline effect are parapsychological in nature - they seem to be straight psychology. (And I am not suggesting that this is news to you, Chris, just something worth mentioning).

I must admit I hadn't looked at the details, but I'd assumed they were looking at conventional psychology experiments.

But it does seem to me that the stated goals have anomalous aspects in mind - particularly the second goal: "To examine whether the replications of newly devised experimental protocols are associated with declining effect sizes, even when all reasonable efforts are made to minimize such declines." If a decline effect persists despite all reasonable efforts being made to minimise it, that seems anomalous to me, because it should be possible, by appropriate experimental design, to eliminate decline effects that arise through conventional mechanisms.

[Laird]

But it does seem to me that the stated goals have anomalous aspects in mind

Quite. Yes, a decline effect would itself be anomalous, regardless of the nature of the experiments whose effects were declining.

I wonder how this might apply across other fields, such as pharmacology?

Also does it have relevance in the area of replicability of studies in various fields?

Here's a presentation on "The Decline Effect in ESP Research" by Jonathan Schooler, courtesy of the Society for Scientific Exploration. Unfortunately it's a bit old - it was given at the SSE Annual Conference in 2011. But when I've read/heard him elsewhere I've found his comments interesting:

Here's a presentation on "The Decline Effect in ESP Research" by Jonathan Schooler, courtesy of the Society for Scientific Exploration. Unfortunately it's a bit old - it was given at the SSE Annual Conference in 2011. But when I've read/heard him elsewhere I've found his comments interesting:

I found both the talk and the questions after it interesting. It covers the decline effect not only in parapsychology, but also in mainstream psychology, including Schooler's own work on "Verbal Overshadowing" - in which when subjects describe something verbally (e.g. a face) they are subsequently less able to recognise it.

I find it difficult to think of a common mechanism that would produce "real" decline effects in both parapsychology and mainstream psychology - unless it's a question of experimenter psi. Obviously the idea that straight psychology experiments are measuring the experimenter's psi isn't likely to be welcomed by mainstream psychologists!