(12-17-2017, 05:01 PM)Ninshub Wrote: If it turns out to be 3, let me just say in advance I was hesitating between 3 and 4, and couldn't tell what was my first gut reaction.

Sure.

I believe you.

heh

Existence is not subject to time; time is subject to Existence.

The following 2 users Like Pssst's post:2 users Like Pssst's post • tim, Ninshub

I think it's number 1.
If one looks at it as a random choice, were convenience, and no deeper thought is put to it to it, the number 1 is the "easier" choice. It's the first number in a string, and is just "convenient" to choose. But of course, that's not how most minds work. We don't choose the "too obvious" target, but instead we try to put it somewhere more "unlikely". The number 4 is also a bit "convenient & easy" as it is in the end of the string, and number 2 isn't "right" either. It's too close to 1, and it is a "easier, even, and dividable" number so its a "to obvious" choice as well, which leaves us with number 3 - which is "perfect". It's an odd, a prime number, and it is not in the beginning or in the end of the string of numbers, it is placed in the "odd place" as the second to last of of the string of numbers. It is the most "anonymous" placing.

But; since this is they way most people think, most people then also does some sort of bait-and-switch when they are asked to select a number for guessing. So what they do is to pick the most "obvious" one, since they think that no one would guess on that one, because it is so "obvious". They could also select the number 4, but I think for the "convenience" they choose the number 1, to be done with it.
So I think it's number 1.

Logical, isn't it??

PS: But of course, the one who selects the number might take take this train of thought one extra step, and try to outsmart the "double-smart", and end up at number 3....again.

The following 1 user Likes Pollux's post:1 user Likes Pollux's post • tim

(12-17-2017, 08:30 PM)Pollux Wrote: I think it's number 1.
If one looks at it as a random choice, were convenience, and no deeper thought is put to it to it, the number 1 is the "easier" choice. It's the first number in a string, and is just "convenient" to choose. But of course, that's not how most minds work. We don't choose the "too obvious" target, but instead we try to put it somewhere more "unlikely". The number 4 is also a bit "convenient & easy" as it is in the end of the string, and number 2 isn't "right" either. It's too close to 1, and it is a "easier, even, and dividable" number so its a "to obvious" choice as well, which leaves us with number 3 - which is "perfect". It's an odd, a prime number, and it is not in the beginning or in the end of the string of numbers, it is placed in the "odd place" as the second to last of of the string of numbers. It is the most "anonymous" placing.

But; since this is they way most people think, most people then also does some sort of bait-and-switch when they are asked to select a number for guessing. So what they do is to pick the most "obvious" one, since they think that no one would guess on that one, because it is so "obvious". They could also select the number 4, but I think for the "convenience" they choose the number 1, to be done with it.
So I think it's number 1.

Logical, isn't it??

PS: But of course, the one who selects the number might take take this train of thought one extra step, and try to outsmart the "double-smart", and end up at number 3....again.

There is perhaps one important piece of information I should give you at this point, Pollux: the number I wrote and surrounded was selected by using this random number generator: https://www.random.org/integers/. So, it was not "calculated" in a more or less devilish way, with first or second order reasonings ... .

(12-17-2017, 08:30 PM)Pollux Wrote: I think it's number 1.
If one looks at it as a random choice, were convenience, and no deeper thought is put to it to it, the number 1 is the "easier" choice. It's the first number in a string, and is just "convenient" to choose. But of course, that's not how most minds work. We don't choose the "too obvious" target, but instead we try to put it somewhere more "unlikely". The number 4 is also a bit "convenient & easy" as it is in the end of the string, and number 2 isn't "right" either. It's too close to 1, and it is a "easier, even, and dividable" number so its a "to obvious" choice as well, which leaves us with number 3 - which is "perfect". It's an odd, a prime number, and it is not in the beginning or in the end of the string of numbers, it is placed in the "odd place" as the second to last of of the string of numbers. It is the most "anonymous" placing.

But; since this is they way most people think, most people then also does some sort of bait-and-switch when they are asked to select a number for guessing. So what they do is to pick the most "obvious" one, since they think that no one would guess on that one, because it is so "obvious". They could also select the number 4, but I think for the "convenience" they choose the number 1, to be done with it.
So I think it's number 1.

Logical, isn't it??

PS: But of course, the one who selects the number might take take this train of thought one extra step, and try to outsmart the "double-smart", and end up at number 3....again.