(2017-10-27, 02:06 PM)fls Wrote: [ -> ]As a case in point, back in the statistical significance thread, I said something that Laird was so keen to prove was dumb, he found and read an article which he felt proved his point and PM'd the link to me. What he hadn't noticed in all that, was that the article outlined in graphical detail the truth of the statement, "smaller effects (decreasing power) increase the likelihood that that positive results are false-positives, even (especially) in the setting of very low p-values". So even though the public facade is "Linda is wrong and just won't own up to it", Laird now understands why what I was talking about is true.
Firstly, I wasn't trying to prove that anything you said was "dumb" when I shared that article. In fact, I never used the word "dumb" of anything you'd said: it was
you who called something
I had said "dumb". And
that's why I shared the article: to demonstrate that a public figure who seemed to have expertise had said essentially the same thing that I had said. You accepted this, but pointed out that in context, my original (public) comment which my (also public) comment in question had been clarifying might have been seen to have been implicitly committing the logical fallacy of affirming the consequent (even though
strictly speaking, it was correct), and I accepted that it might.
Neither Chris nor I contested that the lower the power, the less likely low p-values are. We simply interpreted your statement differently: you didn't explicitly refer to power, only to "smaller effects", and both Chris and I understood this to mean "smaller effects with the same power" - which would have made your statement false. You eventually clarified that we had misinterpreted you, and that you
had intended reduced power in proportion to the smaller effects.
I accept this. What I contest is that the original interpretation of your statement at which Chris and I arrived separately was unjustifiable.
That is the only point of contention, because you
do think that our interpretation was unjustified.
Given this, it is "interesting" that you have modified your original statement in the quote above. I have added emboldening and italics to the bits you have added:
"
smaller effects (decreasing power) increase the likelihood that that positive results are false-positives, even (especially) in the setting of very low p-values"
Had you included the parenthetical comment "(decreasing power)" in your
original statement, there would have been no possibility of Chris and I misinterpreting you.
So... not such a good "case in point".