Psience Quest - Profile of lhl

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2017-08-13

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2019-08-09, 09:57 PM

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lhl's Most Liked Post
Post Subject	Post Date/Time	Numbers of Likes
RE: A probabilistic argument against deniers of the paranormal	2017-08-14, 08:01 AM	4
Thread Subject	Forum Name
A probabilistic argument against deniers of the paranormal	Related Topics Skeptic vs. Proponent Discussions
Post Message
I think one could point to two potential problems with this line of reasoning. 1. The probability calculation (i.e. P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) ) only works if the two cases are (stochastically) independent, it doesn't hold in general. Say, for instance, that the two events in question are that you and I each ask a psychic how to place a bet at the horse race. But unbeknownst to eachother we have actually picked the same medium. Case A would be that you win, and case B would that I win. But since we have the same source for the information in this case clearly P(A and B) = P(A) = P(B). In your example it wouldn't be a case of just choosing 6932 cases: one would also have to compare them pairwise and make sure they are independent. And how does one determine whether there is some underlying common causality between to paranormal events (a butterfly's wing etc.)? 2. The argument also breaks down if the skeptic chooses to assing the probability 0 to all paranormal events. I'm sure you know this, so just to be clear: For something to have probability 0 of occuring doesn't imply that it cannot occur.

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