2018-01-03, 08:52 PM
Radio astronomer John A. Ball wrote a good paper on ETI some years ago (2004), entitled "Extraterrestrial Intelligence: Where is Everybody?". Some of his science is a little dated, but it is still interesting. He likes the Zoo Hypothesis, possibilities 6 and 7. I think I agree. Pssst's hypothesis seems to be a combination of 8 and 9.
From the paper:
One of the possible answers to the Fermi Paradox that Ball overlooked is the "Independence Day" hypothesis: that there is just one other civilization in our galaxy, and the reason there is just the one is that it is extremely xenophobic and extremely advanced scientifically and technologically. They developed aeons ago and have just about wiped out all their competition in this galaxy. We're next.
From the paper:
Quote:I suggest that we try this analogy: The relationship of mankind with ETI is similar to the relationship of some form of primitive Earth life (PEL) with mankind. But which PEL? And how useful is this analogy? An argument based on relative time scales suggests that the appropriate PEL is an animal such as those in our Ordovician geological epoch, namely mollusks and trilobites. Now I can imagine talking with mammals and birds; indeed I've done it, although the conversation was on a pretty low intellectual level. But oysters? The point is that if this analogy is good for anything, then our relationship with typical ETI is probably nothing like the relationship of a primitive human tribe with technological man, which analogy seems to be in the minds of many who propose ETI searches, but instead is more like the relationship of a rather primitive animal with mankind.
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Mankind should be able to take over our galaxy in a fairly short time say a few hundred-thousand years unless somebody else already has. But I think that there are many other civilizations, much older than ours, who might have taken over the galaxy eons ago. Where are they? Where is everybody?
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Spectrum of Possibilities
Popular Scientific Views
(1) There are no other civilizations (OCs). Earth is either unique the only biosystem or mankind is first in level of development.
(2) OCs exist, but they're very primitive; they don't know we're here (but they might like to know).
SETI Views
(3) OCs exist; they are about at our level of development; they suspect that we might be here; they might like to talk with us (The "Mirror View").
(4) OCs exist; they know we're here; they would like to talk with us if they could just attract our attention.
Unpopular View
(5) OCs exist; they know we're here, but they don't care; they're ignoring us. We pose no threat, and we have nothing they want.
Zoo Hypothesis
(6) OCs exist; we are of some interest to them; a few of their scientists are discreetly studying us.
(7) OCs exist; we are interesting to them; they are studying us in some detail but inconspicuously.
Philosophy & Religion
(8) OCs exist; they are studying us and occasionally even dabbling in our affairs. (UFOs may be representatives of OCs.)
(9) OCs exist; we are an experiment in their laboratory ("Petri-dish Hypothesis").
Popular View
(10) A supernatural god exists, omnipotent and omniscient (this is the ultimate Extraterrestrial Intelligence).
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Various combinations of these categories are possible. We might have, for example, (10) together with any of the others; and we might have one civilization, say in category (7), another in category (2), and so on. Some such combination, indeed, seems to me to be the most likely answer.
One of the possible answers to the Fermi Paradox that Ball overlooked is the "Independence Day" hypothesis: that there is just one other civilization in our galaxy, and the reason there is just the one is that it is extremely xenophobic and extremely advanced scientifically and technologically. They developed aeons ago and have just about wiped out all their competition in this galaxy. We're next.